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British Churches Are Putting Their Faith in Heat Pumps

WIRED

They gathered together on a sunny July evening, between the churchyard's trees and leaning tombstones, to give thanks for the heat pump. Facing the newly installed system, in its large green metal box, they sang hymns and said prayers. "To thank God, really, for being able to work His wonders in mysterious ways," says Karen Crowhurst, who is part of a committee that helps to run St. The previous month, a flatbed truck carrying a hefty new heat pump system had eased itself onto the church grounds. By late July, the device was fully installed, and soon followed an outdoor thanksgiving service .


Swap your boiler for a money-saving heat pump

Popular Science

Heat pumps can save you about $370 per year and are good for the planet. Heat pumps date back to the 1850s and are more energy efficient than furnaces or boilers. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. Colder weather is quickly approaching, which means it's time for many folks to start cranking up the heat in their homes and apartments. But for many Americans, heating up their homes is a costly affair-and it's only getting more expensive.


Data-Driven Heat Pump Management: Combining Machine Learning with Anomaly Detection for Residential Hot Water Systems

Rahal, Manal, Ahmed, Bestoun S., Renstrom, Roger, Stener, Robert, Wurtz, Albrecht

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Heat pumps (HPs) have emerged as a cost-effective and clean technology for sustainable energy systems, but their efficiency in producing hot water remains restricted by conventional threshold-based control methods. Although machine learning (ML) has been successfully implemented for various HP applications, optimization of household hot water demand forecasting remains understudied. This paper addresses this problem by introducing a novel approach that combines predictive ML with anomaly detection to create adaptive hot water production strategies based on household-specific consumption patterns. Our key contributions include: (1) a composite approach combining ML and isolation forest (iForest) to forecast household demand for hot water and steer responsive HP operations; (2) multi-step feature selection with advanced time-series analysis to capture complex usage patterns; (3) application and tuning of three ML models: Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Bi-directional LSTM with the self-attention mechanism on data from different types of real HP installations; and (4) experimental validation on six real household installations. Our experiments show that the best-performing model LightGBM achieves superior performance, with RMSE improvements of up to 9.37\% compared to LSTM variants with $R^2$ values between 0.748-0.983. For anomaly detection, our iForest implementation achieved an F1-score of 0.87 with a false alarm rate of only 5.2\%, demonstrating strong generalization capabilities across different household types and consumption patterns, making it suitable for real-world HP deployments.


Interpretable reinforcement learning for heat pump control through asymmetric differentiable decision trees

Van Puyvelde, Toon, Zareh, Mehran, Develder, Chris

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms have gained traction in home energy management systems. However, their adoption by energy management companies remains limited due to the black-box nature of DRL, which fails to provide transparent decision-making feedback. To address this, explainable reinforcement learning (XRL) techniques have emerged, aiming to make DRL decisions more transparent. Among these, soft differential decision tree (DDT) distillation provides a promising approach due to the clear decision rules they are based on, which can be efficiently computed. However, achieving high performance often requires deep, and completely full, trees, which reduces interpretability. To overcome this, we propose a novel asymmetric soft DDT construction method. Unlike traditional soft DDTs, our approach adaptively constructs trees by expanding nodes only when necessary. This improves the efficient use of decision nodes, which require a predetermined depth to construct full symmetric trees, enhancing both interpretability and performance. We demonstrate the potential of asymmetric DDTs to provide transparent, efficient, and high-performing decision-making in home energy management systems.


Constrained Reinforcement Learning for Safe Heat Pump Control

Zhang, Baohe, Frison, Lilli, Brox, Thomas, Bödecker, Joschka

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Constrained Reinforcement Learning (RL) has emerged as a significant research area within RL, where integrating constraints with rewards is crucial for enhancing safety and performance across diverse control tasks. In the context of heating systems in the buildings, optimizing the energy efficiency while maintaining the residents' thermal comfort can be intuitively formulated as a constrained optimization problem. However, to solve it with RL may require large amount of data. Therefore, an accurate and versatile simulator is favored. In this paper, we propose a novel building simulator I4B which provides interfaces for different usages and apply a model-free constrained RL algorithm named constrained Soft Actor-Critic with Linear Smoothed Log Barrier function (CSAC-LB) to the heating optimization problem. Benchmarking against baseline algorithms demonstrates CSAC-LB's efficiency in data exploration, constraint satisfaction and performance.


Multi-task multi-constraint differential evolution with elite-guided knowledge transfer for coal mine integrated energy system dispatching

Dai, Canyun, Sun, Xiaoyan, Hu, Hejuan, Song, Wei, Zhang, Yong, Gong, Dunwei

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The dispatch optimization of coal mine integrated energy system is challenging due to high dimensionality, strong coupling constraints, and multiobjective. Existing constrained multiobjective evolutionary algorithms struggle with locating multiple small and irregular feasible regions, making them inaplicable to this problem. To address this issue, we here develop a multitask evolutionary algorithm framework that incorporates the dispatch correlated domain knowledge to effectively deal with strong constraints and multiobjective optimization. Possible evolutionary multitask construction strategy based on complex constraint relationship analysis and handling, i.e., constraint coupled spatial decomposition, constraint strength classification and constraint handling technique, is first explored. Within the multitask evolutionary optimization framework, two strategies, i.e., an elite guided knowledge transfer by designing a special crowding distance mechanism to select dominant individuals from each task, and an adaptive neighborhood technology based mutation to effectively balance the diversity and convergence of each optimized task for the differential evolution algorithm, are further developed. The performance of the proposed algorithm in feasibility, convergence, and diversity is demonstrated in a case study of a coal mine integrated energy system by comparing with CPLEX solver and seven constrained multiobjective evolutionary algorithms.


GHP-MOFassemble: Diffusion modeling, high throughput screening, and molecular dynamics for rational discovery of novel metal-organic frameworks for carbon capture at scale

Park, Hyun, Yan, Xiaoli, Zhu, Ruijie, Huerta, E. A., Chaudhuri, Santanu, Cooper, Donny, Foster, Ian, Tajkhorshid, Emad

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce GHP-MOFassemble, a Generative artificial intelligence (AI), High Performance framework to accelerate the rational design of metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) with high CO2 capacity and synthesizable linkers. Our framework combines a diffusion model, a class of generative AI, to generate novel linkers that are assembled with one of three pre-selected nodes into MOFs in a primitive cubic (pcu) topology. The CO2 capacities of these AI-generated MOFs are predicted using a modified version of the crystal graph convolutional neural network model. We then use the LAMMPS code to perform molecular dynamics simulations to relax the AI-generated MOF structures, and identify those that converge to stable structures, and maintain their porous properties throughout the simulations. Among 120,000 pcu MOF candidates generated by the GHP-MOFassemble framework, with three distinct metal nodes (Cu paddlewheel, Zn paddlewheel, Zn tetramer), a total of 102 structures completed molecular dynamics simulations at 1 bar with predicted CO2 capacity higher than 2 mmol/g at 0.1 bar, which corresponds to the top 5% of hMOFs in the hypothetical MOF (hMOF) dataset in the MOFX-DB database. Among these candidates, 18 have change in density lower than 1% during molecular dynamics simulations, indicating their stability. We also found that the top five GHP-MOFassemble's MOF structures have CO2 capacities higher than 96.9% of hMOF structures. This new approach combines generative AI, graph modeling, large-scale molecular dynamics simulations, and extreme scale computing to open up new pathways for the accelerated discovery of novel MOF structures at scale.


Deep learning based surrogate modeling for thermal plume prediction of groundwater heat pumps

Davis, Kyle, Leiteritz, Raphael, Pflüger, Dirk, Schulte, Miriam

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The ability for groundwater heat pumps to meet space heating and cooling demands without relying on fossil fuels, has prompted their mass roll-out in dense urban environments. In regions with high subsurface groundwater flow rates, the thermal plume generated from a heat pump's injection well can propagate downstream, affecting surrounding users and reducing their heat pump efficiency. To reduce the probability of interference, regulators often rely on simple analytical models or high-fidelity groundwater simulations to determine the impact that a heat pump has on the subsurface aquifer and surrounding heat pumps. These are either too inaccurate or too computationally expensive for everyday use. In this work, a surrogate model was developed to provide a quick, high accuracy prediction tool of the thermal plume generated by a heat pump within heterogeneous subsurface aquifers. Three variations of a convolutional neural network were developed that accepts the known groundwater Darcy velocities as discrete 2D inputs and predicts the temperature within the subsurface aquifer around the heat pump. A data set consisting of 800 numerical simulation samples, generated from random permeability fields and pressure boundary conditions, was used to provide pseudo-randomized Darcy velocity fields as input fields and the temperature field solution for training the network. The subsurface temperature field output from the network provides a more realistic temperature field that follows the Darcy velocity streamlines, while being orders of magnitude faster than conventional high-fidelity solvers.


Deep Reinforcement Learning for Heat Pump Control

Rohrer, Tobias, Frison, Lilli, Kaupenjohann, Lukas, Scharf, Katrin, Hergenrother, Elke

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Heating in private households is a major contributor to the emissions generated today. Heat pumps are a promising alternative for heat generation and are a key technology in achieving our goals of the German energy transformation and to become less dependent on fossil fuels. Today, the majority of heat pumps in the field are controlled by a simple heating curve, which is a naive mapping of the current outdoor temperature to a control action. A more advanced control approach is model predictive control (MPC) which was applied in multiple research works to heat pump control. However, MPC is heavily dependent on the building model, which has several disadvantages. Motivated by this and by recent breakthroughs in the field, this work applies deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to heat pump control in a simulated environment. Through a comparison to MPC, it could be shown that it is possible to apply DRL in a model-free manner to achieve MPC-like performance. This work extends other works which have already applied DRL to building heating operation by performing an in-depth analysis of the learned control strategies and by giving a detailed comparison of the two state-of-the-art control methods.


Using Artificial Intelligence to Design More Efficient Heat Pumps

#artificialintelligence

Heat pumps are already incredibly efficient. Researchers in Switzerland say they can push efficiencies even further using artificial intelligence. A research team led by Jürg Alexander Schiffmann at the L'Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, or EPFL) is using AI to design compressors that slash heat pumps' electricity consumption by around 25 percent. Unlike conventional furnaces or boilers, which combust fuels to generate heat, heat pumps use electricity to move heat from one place to another. Employing a compressor and refrigerant, heat pumps expel heat from the indoors to the outside during the cooling season, or capture heat outdoors from the ground or air and draw it indoors in winter.